Situation

It’s no secret that any realistic path to a Democratic Senate majority requires holding on to Senator Tim Kaine’s Virginia seat. So when early summer polls showed Donald Trump narrowing his margin with President Biden in Virginia, we didn’t dismiss it – we recognized it as a warning sign that the presidential race could boost turnout from lower propensity conservative voters in rural parts of the state. Our Republican challenger Hung Cao’s path to victory would depend on running up his margins as much as possible in these rural areas, as Governor Glenn Youngkin did in his successful 2021 race. To secure Senator Kaine’s reelection, we would need to maximize turnout from the Democratic base while preventing further erosion in rural areas.

Strategy & Targeting

Our digital strategy focused on running tailored creative on digital networks (i.e. streaming platforms, YouTube, and social media) toward younger voters, as they were shown to be the most receptive to online advertising. Ahead of the general election, we generated a persuasion model which showed voters receiving the top performing messaging should move 14.3% or more in our direction after effective advertising.

We segmented our ad buying into a general track where we highlighted the differences between Sen. Kaine and Cao on the economy and rising costs, with a separate track for women who received ads regarding Cao’s extreme stance on abortion. We targeted younger, likely voters who could be persuaded to turn out and vote for Sen. Kaine.

Creative

Testing showed messages highlighting Cao’s disparaging comments about Virginia’s rural areas were the most effective in eroding his support with these voters. Our strategy was to define Cao as an out-of-touch elitist and to contrast this with Tim Kaine’s commitment to serving all Virginians. Our ad included clips of Cao calling towns in Virginia “podunk” and “ridonkulous,” followed by Senator Kaine speaking direct to camera and emphasizing his deep connections to these same places.

When there were remarks from Cao and Trump regarding gutting the federal government, we responded by creating an ad targeted toward federal employees to hammer home the impact of eliminating federal jobs on Virginians.

When we were tasked with raising support in key communities in the Norfolk and Hampton Roads area toward the end of the election, we highlighted Kaine’s efforts to bring jobs back to Virginia, strengthening our military and supporting military families.

With rising prices and the cost of living being a key issue in the election we ran ads showing Cao’s support for a radical bill that would raise taxes and sunset programs like Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. Meanwhile, we showed Kaine’s record of cutting drug prices capping insulin at $35, and making rent and childcare more affordable.

Results

Across the country, Democrats saw their poor performance in rural areas crater even further. Our deliberate efforts to communicate with voters in these areas helped Tim Kaine define himself separately from national Democrats’ unpopular brand, allowing him to meaningfully outperform VP Harris’s statewide margin.

“Sen. Tim Kaine (D), successfully won reelection and nearly doubled Harris’s margin of victory because of his performance in places like Lee County”

Washington Post

The city of Staunton, which was featured in our ad, was the only locality in Virginia that shifted toward the Democrats for the election. By investing in testing and targeted messaging, we demonstrated the type of work Democrats can do to be competitive in every zip code.

GOTV

To support voter turnout efforts across the Commonwealth, we ran a two-week flight focusing on VA-02 and VA-07 as those Congressional contests were extremely tight. We segmented our plan by those who were likely to vote early and dedicated Election Day voters.

These ads were primarily targeted to Democrats who just needed a reminder to show up and vote on or before Election Day. Our efforts supported voter turnout in VA-07 who helped hold onto a crucial seat for the Virginia Democratic Congressional delegation.